Sunday, September 23, 2012

Final Emmy Predictions: Who Deserves The Awards... And Who Will Actually Get Them?

The day has come everyone. It's Emmy judgment day. I have a list of what I think will most likely happen, but I'm also going to include who I believe is most deserving. So get your ballots filled in quick and let's see if whose choices will reign most truthful tonight.

Best Comedy Nominees:
1. "The Big Bang Theory"
2. "30 Rock"
3. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
4. "Modern Family"
5. "Girls"
6. "Veep"

Winner: "Modern Family"- I say the Emmy voters will stick to what they know and give the ensemble show another win.
Possibility: The only dark horse winner I could imagine is "Girls" but the voters may only do this if the HBO comedy wins all of its other awards from Best Writing and Direction to Best Actress for Lena Dunham. If we see a sweep, we may see an overall gold statue for the first timer. But this is a HUGE long-shot.

Best Actor in a Comedy- Nominees: 
1. Jim Parsons- "The Big Bang Theory"
2. Louis C.K.- "Louie"
3. Alec Baldwin- "30 Rock"
4. Larry David- "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
5. Don Cheadle- "House of Lies"
6. Jon Cryer- "Two and a Half Men"

Winner: Jim Parsons. I see another familiar face walking away with the trophy yet again.
Possibility: It would bring me the greatest joy in the world for Louis C.K. to get some recognition for the fantastic work he does on and offscreen on his show. If they knew any better, Emmy voters would give the comedian this award just because they snubbed the show as a whole for Best Comedy. If Jon Cryer gets within 10 feet of this award, there is no justice in this world.

Best Actress in a Comedy- Nominees:
1. Amy Poehler- "Parks and Recreation"
2. Julia Louie-Dreyfuss- "Veep"
3. Lena Dunham- "Girls"
4. Tina Fey- "30 Rock"
5. Melissa McCarthy- "Mike and Molly"
6. Zooey Deschanel- "New Girl"
7. Edie Falco- "Nurse Jackie"

Winner: It has to Amy Poehler. It just has to be.
Possibility: Emmy voters love Julia Louie-Dreyfuss. If I'm being completely honest with myself, she is most likely the frontrunner. But after trying to watch "Veep" with the most open of minds, I cannot bring myself to really enjoy it. "Parks and Recreation,"on the other hand, brings me pure joy from goofy start to sweet finish. And it all has to do with how ridiculously good Poehler is. This is her fifth nomination (third for "Parks and Rec"). Give her the Emmy already.
A Dark Horse candidate: Emmy voters might reward Lena Dunham for writing, directing and starring in her own show, "Girls."

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy- Nominees:
1. Ty Burrell- "Modern Family"
2. Ed O'Neill- "Modern Family"
3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson- "Modern Family"
4. Eric Stonestreet- "Modern Family"
5. Bill Hader- "Saturday Night Live"
6. Max Greenfield- "New Girl"

Winner: Ty Burrell. The two supporting awards for comedy are the toughest to predict. It's such a toss-up for me between the always wonderful Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet who have both already picked up awards. I'll stick with Burrell for win number two.
Possibility: Then again, Emmy voters may shy away from the show considering it's less than stellar third season. If this happens, my vote would go to Bill Hader who has deserved acclaim from day one on "SNL."

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy- Nominees:
1. Kathryn Joosten- "Desperate Housewives"
2. Kristen Wiig- "Saturday Night Live"
3. Sofia Vergara- "Modern Family"
4. Julie Bowen- "Modern Family"
5. Merritt Weaver- "Nurse Jackie"
6. Mayim Bialik- "The Big Bang Theory"

Winner: It's hard to say but I think Julie Bowen has the edge over her co-star here.
Possiblity: But if the Emmy voters are partial to "The Big Bang Theory," Mayim Bialik could take home the gold.

Best Drama Nominees:
1. "Breaking Bad"
2. "Mad Men"
3. "Boardwalk Empire"
4. "Homeland"
5. "Game of Thrones"
6. "Downton Abbey"

Winner: "Mad Men" has won for four straight years. It's hard to see anyone taking it down but...
Possibility: "Breaking Bad." If anyone can best the advertising drama, I think Bryan Cranston & Co. have the biggest shot with its outrageously good fourth season.
A Dark Horse candidate: If Emmy voters are as in love with "Downton Abbey" as they were come Emmy nominations time, the British period show could surprise everyone. But I don't think there's any real show with such great frontrunners.

Best Actor in a Drama- Nominees:
1. Bryan Cranston- "Breaking Bad"
2. Jon Hamm- "Mad Men"
3. Damian Lewis- "Homeland"
4. Steve Buscemi- "Boardwalk Empire"
5. Hugh Bonneville- "Downton Abbey"
6. Michael C. Hall- "Dexter"

Winner: Bryan Cranston. The fourth season was just too good.
Possibility: Poor Jon Hamm. The guy's been nominated every year and lost out to Cranston every time the "Breaking Bad" star was eligible. The one year Cranston was out of the race (last year), "Friday Night Lights" star Kyle Chandler was surprisingly (and finally, rightfully) given the award for the football drama's final season. Hamm didn't have as much time with one really emotional episode to submit (except for maybe the one where he hallucinates killing a lady) so it's probably going to be another Cranston year.

Best Actress in a Drama- Nominees: 
1. Claire Danes- "Homeland"
2. Glenn Close- "Damages"
3. Elizabeth Moss- "Mad Men"
4. Juliana Marguiles- "The Good Wife"
5. Michelle Dockery- "Downton Abbey"
6. Kathy Bates- "Harry's Law"

Winner: Claire Danes. She owns every second of her screen time in "Homeland."
Possibility: None. I'm not putting another name in place of Danes. There's no way she doesn't take this award home tonight.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama- Nominees:
1. Giancarlo Esposito- "Breaking Bad"
2. Aaron Paul- "Breaking Bad"
3. Jared Harris- "Mad Men"
4. Peter Dinklage- "Game of Thrones"
5. Jim Carter- "Downton Abbey"
6. Brendan Coyle- "Downton Abbey"

Winner: Giancarlo Esposito gets my vote solely for the last episode of season four.
Possibility: It's always possible that Aaron Paul could win another Emmy for his consistently stunning work as Jesse on "Breaking Bad." But as this is the only year Esposito can qualify, Paul will probably be sitting this one out.
A Dark Horse candidate: Don't forget about Peter Dinklage. He did win last year...

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama- Nominees: 
1. Anna Gunn- "Breaking Bad"
2. Archie Panjabi- "The Good Wife"
3. Christine Baranski- "The Good Wife"
4. Maggie Smith- "Downton Abbey"
5. Joanne Froggatt- "Downton Abbey"
6. Christina Hendricks- "Mad Men"

Winner: Christina Hendricks. After what her character did in season five, I truly believe this is finally her year. She completely deserves this award.
Possibility: But there's always a chance for Maggie Smith to win when she's thrown into any mix.

Best Miniseries/TV Movie Nominees: 
1. "Game Change"
2. Hemingway & Gelhorn"
3. "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia"
4. "Luther"
5. "American Horror Story"
6. "Hatfields & McCoys"

Winner: This is a tough one. With so many good choices, I think Emmy voters will play it political and traditional with "Game Change." They've given a movie like this the award before ("Recount") and I think this'll be a repeat. Emmy loves HBO, too.
Possibilities: "Hemingway & Gelhorn," "Hatfields & McCoys" and "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia" all have a small chance. "Sherlock" would be my pick for most deserving, though I would've preferred the creators to submit the brilliant "The Reichenbach Fall" instead of "A Scandal in Belgravia."

Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie Nominees:
1. Kevin Costner- "Hatfields & McCoys"
2. Bill Paxton- "Hatfields & McCoys"
3. Clive Owen- "Hemingway & Gelhorn"
4. Woody Harrelson- "Game Change"
5. Idris Elba- "Luther"
6. Benedict Cumberbatch- "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia"

Winner: I honestly don't know who will win for this, but I genuinely hope its Benedict Cumberbatch. That man is the perfect Sherlock Holmes. But if Emmy voters embrace "Game Change" the way I think they will, the winner will definitely be Woody Harrelson.
Possibilities: While I believe the "Hatfields & McCoys" men may actually split the vote, Kevin Costner is still a huge contender... as is this year's Golden Globe winner Idris Elba.

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore- "Game Change"
2. Nicole Kidman- "Hemingway & Gelhorn"
3. Connie Britton- "American Horror Story"
4. Emma Thompson- "The Song of Lunch"
5. Ashley Judd- "Missing"

Winner: Julianne Moore will almost certainly win for her portrayal of Sarah Palin.
Possiblity: The only upset I could see happening is for Kidman to steal away the prize from Moore. Both TV movies were on HBO so there is potential for a surprise.

Best Supporting Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie Nominees: 
1. Martin Freeman- "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia"
2. Tom Bergeron- "Hatfields & McCoys"
3. Ed Harris- "Game Change"
4. David Stratharin- "Hemingway & Gelhorn"
5. Denis O'Hare- "American Horror Story"

Winner: Ed Harris. His John McCain will most likely be as well-received as Julianne Moore's Sarah Palin.
Possibility: I would be the happiest person to see Martin Freeman get this award for his fantastic work as John Watson on "Sherlock." But again, I think the submission of "The Reichenbach Fall" would have been better suited for Freeman's chances.

Best Supporting Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie Nominees:
1. Frances Conroy- "American Horror Story"
2. Jessica Lange- "American Horror Story"
3. Sarah Paulson- "Game Change"
4. Mare Winningham- "Hatfields & McCoys"
5. Judy Davis- "Page Eight (Masterpiece)"

Winner: Jessica Lange. I don't see anyone taking this away from her.
Possibility: None. I'm confident no one else will win over Lange's juicy role.

That's a wrap for me. I'll be live-tweeting the show from red-carpet to the Jimmy Kimmel's closing remarks so check those out. Let's see how many of these predictions come true tonight at 7 p.m. on ABC. 

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